KEEPING UP WITH KENZ
According to Ginis, scientists were able to predict that Hurricane Sandy would hit the East Coast while it was in the Bahamas, three days in advance. He believes those three days saved lives and eliminated millions of dollars in property damage.
“It is very important to provide sufficient time for people to get prepared,” said Ginis.
Forecasting when and where a hurricane will develop or make landfall are important factors in Ginis’ research, but another big factor he deals with is how to determine the strength of a hurricane.
According to Ginis, strength prediction is the most difficult part to forecast. The strength of a hurricane refers to the maximum wind speeds inside of the hurricane and hurricane intensity is categorized from 1-5, five being the worst.
“I strongly believe that we have sufficient forecast skill to make timely warnings to protect people’s lives,” said Ginis. “You can think about protecting people’s lives and property, and unfortunately we still experience people dying from hurricanes.”
According to Live Science, the death toll from Hurricane Sandy reached 149 as of Nov. 1, 2012. It also left thousands homeless and millions without power.
Ginis believes the science of forecasting hurricanes has come a long way in the two decades that he has been in the field, but still feels there is a lot of potential for new developments.
Hurricane Forecasting: Improving With Time
By Bradley Labonte
NARAGANSETT-“As a scientist our main job is to focus on the science of improving hurricane forecast, but we are very much concerned about the potential impact of hurricanes on the society,” said Dr. Isaac Ginis.
Ginis, a professor of Oceanography at the University at the Rhode Island, spoke to a group of journalism students about the importance of forecasting hurricanes.
Ginis studies how the ocean and atmosphere interact with each other. Along with a focus on numerical modeling to forecast hurricanes as soon as possible.
According to Ginis, right now, scientists are able to forecast hurricanes five days in advance. But, he believes that with improvements in technology, scientists will soon be able to predict them seven days in advance.
“In terms of evacuation and preparation this is enormously important, to be able to predict well in advance which areas are going to be most directly hit by the storm,” said Ginis.
Right now, Ginis and other scientists are working on determining how strong a hurricane will be when it hits landfall, and narrowing down the area of land in the prediction of where the hurricane will hit.
“There are a lot of businesses along the coastline that are very susceptible to potentially big impact,” said Ginis. “Sometimes catastrophic impact.”